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MARCH 8,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 5:06 P.M. ET: 

SOCIALISM DOWN – From the American Interest:  "New York City lefty Mayor Bill de Blasio was elected in a landslide with more than 73 percent of the vote last November. Yet after only two months on the job, his approval rating has been cut nearly in half, with only 39 percent of city voters expressing approval of the job he has done so far. As the WSJ notes, this is considerably lower than his predecessor’s approval ratings at this time in his tenure, although he is still personally relatively popular."  Crazy Bill started attacking the immensely popular charter schools, suggesting they were playthings of the rich.  In fact, they are loved in minority communities.  Not a wise move, Bill, but Fidel would approve.

EMBARRASSING – From AFP:  "US Secretary of State John Kerry has called on American ambassadors around the world to make the fight against climate change a top priority ahead of new UN talks next year.  In his first department-wide policy guidance statement since taking office a year ago, he told his 70,000 staff: 'The environment has been one of the central causes of my life.'"  I'm so moved.  The world is in flames and John wants a monument built to his life.  Apparently, John hasn't noticed that dissent over "global warming" is growing.  But his friend, Al Gore, is getting richer.

BRILLIANCE – Reader Bill Sorby sends us a story noting one effect of New York State's trendy "get tough on guns" laws.  Remington, one of the nation's legendary gun makers, has announced that it is moving a New York plant to Alabama, with a loss to New York of 2,000 jobs.  Remington's initial investment in Alabama is $87-million.  New York is the largest outmigration state in the Union.  In other words, more people leave New York than any other.  Absurd taxes, ridiculous living costs, are driving people away.  This state cannot afford factory closings.  But the trendies are in charge, and they will not care.

March 8, 2014       Permalink

STORY OR NON-STORY? – AT 11:04 A.M. ET:  Stories about potential presidential candidates are entertaining, and sometimes they have substance.  So let us entertain.  There is a movement on to draft Dr. Ben Carson, the African-American neurosurgeon, for the Republican presidential nomination.  Is it possible this could happen?  From The Hill:

Neurologist Ben Carson could be 2016’s sleeper presidential contender.

You won’t find him in early polls, and he doesn’t make headlines for huddling with top advisers in primary states.

Carson is lauded for his plainspoken yet forceful ability to speak clearly about the party’s values. The retired physician rose to prominence after delivering a controversial speech at last year’s National Prayer Breakfast, where he lambasted President Obama and his policies while standing just feet away from the president.

Now, his supporters believe Carson, as a black Republican and a true political outsider, could be the one GOP candidate capable of taking down Hillary Clinton.

That simple star power has made him one of the biggest draws at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference, earned him a prime speaking slot on Saturday, and and even inspired an unlikely movement to draft him into the presidential race.

But for as much of a surprise as his rise with conservatives has been, he’s still a reluctant candidate.

Carson maintains he doesn’t want to run and isn’t making any serious preparations for a bid, but in a Thursday interview with The Hill, it was clear that he has thought seriously about the logistics of a campaign.

“My hope, obviously, is that someone else will really catch fire and generate a great deal of enthusiasm. If that doesn’t happen in another year and there’s still a lot of people clamoring for another option, then I will have to really look seriously at it,” he told The Hill in a phone conversation.

But people are already clamoring for Carson. He wouldn’t give specifics on where his packed speaking schedule had taken him in the past few months, but said he visits states in every corner of the country, headlining fundraisers and civic events and speaking at schools about conservative principles and on the dangers of ObamaCare.

“People are so thrilled to see that they’re not the only one with common sense. But the problem is the people with common sense have been beaten down so they’re afraid to express themselves,” he said.

COMMENT:  It's intriguing.  Carson is a terrific guy.  I've heard him speak and he'd make a wonderful keynote speaker at the national convention.

But running for president is brutal.  Carson has no experience in politics, and certainly none in foreign policy.  He is given to verbal gaffes, common to amateurs.  He has to prove that he is not a five-minute wonder.  It is a very hard road, and he will be accused of being an Uncle Tom, one of the standard charges made by left-wing McCarthyites. 

But I certainly think he's worth following, and we will do it.

March 8, 2014       Permalink

THE AIRLINER – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:   There is intrigue, whether justified or not, surrounding the disappearance of a Malaysian airliner yesterday, with 239 people on board.  It appears the plane may have crashed off the coast of Vietnam, with no mayday message or any other communication from the cockpit.  From Fox:

Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said there was no indication that the pilots had sent a distress signal, suggesting that whatever happened to the plane occurred quickly and possibly catastrophically.

China's state-run news agency Xinhua reported the plane was lost in airspace controlled by Vietnam, and never made contact with Chinese air traffic controllers. There have been no reports of a plane crashing into Chinese waters, and China is assisting the airline in its search for the plane.

Vietnamese air force planes on Saturday spotted two large oil slicks in the area where the plane vanished in the first sign that the aircraft carrying 239 people on board, including two infants and 12 crew members, had crashed.

The slicks were each between 6 miles and 9 miles long. There was no confirmation that the slicks were related to the missing plane, but the statement said they were consistent with the kinds that would be produced by the two fuel tanks of a crashed jetliner.

COMMENT:  Recovering wreckage from underwater is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible.  It was, however, done well in the case of TWA Flight 800, which crashed off the coast of Long Island in the 1990s.  That, too, went down without a distress signal from the cockpit.  The probable cause, which is still mired in controversy, was, according to the NTSB, an explosion in the center fuel tank. 

We must wait for answers.  But in an age of terror and hijackings, we aren't wrong to speculate about the possibility of an intentional crash. 

March 8, 2014       Permalink

RUSSIA AND GERMANY – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  One of the complicating factors in confronting Russia over Ukraine is the strange role of Germany.  Germany is the strongest country in Western Europe, yet is linked closely with Russia economically.  It therefore frustrates efforts at a unified response to Russian aggression.  From London's Daily Mail:

As Europe’s leading power, a global economic titan, and a nation that has sought since 1945 to set an example of peace and democracy, Germany ought to be at the forefront of demands for sanctions to be imposed on Russia after its outrageous behaviour in Ukraine.

But it has signally failed to discharge its moral duty towards Europe. The main reason is self-interest because the German economy is massively dependent on Russia. Not only is Russia one of the main markets for its exports, but its industry and homes rely so heavily on the country’s gas and oil.

What’s more, Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel (who grew up in a Soviet-controlled area east of Berlin) and her Kremlin counterpart Vladimir Putin (who once worked for the KGB in Dresden) have a pretty strong relationship.

Hard economic facts graphically reveal the two countries’ interdependence.

Germany is Russia’s third biggest trading partner and accounts for 31 per cent of Russia’s imports from the EU. At least 6,100 German companies have capital investments in Russia, turning over 40 billion euros in 2012 and employing 270,000 people.

The main factor behind Germany’s reluctance to challenge Russian aggression, though, is the fact that 35 per cent of its natural gas and oil supplies come from Russia.

The effect of Germany’s failure to lead the EU and demand tough sanctions against Moscow means that a divided West is left to look on haplessly as the Russian tyrant remains free to continue unimpeded in his bullying of his neighbours.

Most chillingly, this means that Putin might also feel emboldened to start menacing other former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia which, like Ukraine, have considerable Russian minorities.Indeed, this is a truly inglorious moment for Mrs Merkel.

COMMENT:  When Mitt Romney said during the 2012 campaign that Russia was our greatest enemy, he was laughed at.  In fact, he was prescient.  Russia is rising.  It is led by an aggressive, strategically savvy leader, Vladimir Putin, who runs circles around the king of the faculty lounges, Barack Obama.

Obama began his administration by canceling missile defense systems promised to Poland and the Czech Republic, thus demonstrating his contempt for those allies.  The chickens are now coming home to roost.  Putin acts with impunity, and the strongest nation in Western Europe hedges its bets, dependent on Russian cash and supplies.  Countries that border on Russia might well have to cozy up to the Kremlin, if only to stay alive.  They must feel very alone.

March 8,  2014     Permalink

MARCH 7,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:33 P.M. ET: 

MYSTERY – A Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 with 239 people on board has disappeared on a flight from Malaysia to Beijing, China.  No wreckage has been sighted.  It is not known whether the plane went down at sea or over land.   All contact was abruptly lost.  Obviously, thoughts range from an engine explosion to a terrorism act to a collision with some object, but that is all speculation.  We will follow this.

DON'T ASK BARACK FOR HELP – From the Chicago Tribune:  "SPRINGFIELD—The daughter of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, President Barack Obama’s former minister, was convicted by a federal jury Friday of laundering thousands of dollars from a $1.25 million state grant for a Chicago-based job-training program.  Jeri Wright said she would 'definitely' appeal the verdict in U.S. District Court, which found her guilty of 11 counts that included money laundering, lying to federal agents and lying to a grand jury."  Don't call Barack.  He never heard of Rev. Wright.  He never heard of little Jeri.  He never heard of Chicago.  He never heard of  the United States.

ALL OUT FOR BILL – From the Washington Times:  "Bill Clinton accepted a $225,000 speaking fee from the nonprofit Washington Hospital Center smack in the middle of two big rounds of layoffs in 2012 — one of a number of tax-exempt organizations that have paid big money to hear the former president talk.  The $225,000 payment wasn’t made public by the hospital on its annual Internal Revenue Service forms, but rather appeared among dozens of lucrative speeches by Mr. Clinton reported on his wife’s final ethics filing as secretary of state.  'No disrespect to Bill Clinton, but that money could’ve gone a long way and been put to better use,' said Dan Fields Jr., president of the Service Employees International Union Local 722 representing hospital workers."   The Clintons are a corporation.  They have profited mightily from their "public service."  Bill should return the money to unemployed hospital workers, but he won't.

WE ARE SAVED, WE ARE SAVED – From the Washington Examiner:  "Progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders is readying a potential 2016 presidential primary challenge to Hillary Clinton, claiming that the 'same old same old ... Clinton type of politics' won't solve the problems of the nation.  'I am prepared to run for president of the United States. I don't believe that I am the only person out there who can fight this fight, but I am certainly prepared to look seriously at that race,' he told The Nation's John Nichols.  Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with the Democrats, has toyed with a presidential bid before, but this is the furthest he’s gone in announcing his bid. While he hasn’t begun fundraising, Sanders said he is discussing a run with key advisors."  I sense a huge wanting of Bernie out there, don't you?  I think that, once he announces, it's all over.   

March 7, 2014       Permalink

OBAMACARE NOT MEETING ITS GOAL – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  The original goal of Obamacare was to insure the uninsured.  In a way, it was a fantasy, as no American was actually uninsured.  There were programs and policies, including hospital policies, that made sure that anyone who needed medical care got it.

But there were (and are) people with no formal, contractual medical plans.  And what has happened to those people under Obamacare?  From Fox: 

ObamaCare appears to be making little progress in signing up uninsured Americans, one of the law's primary goals, according to two new surveys.

Only one in 10 uninsured people who qualify for private plans through the new health insurance marketplaces enrolled as of last month, according to a survey by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co., The Washington Post reported on Thursday.

The McKinsey survey found that only 27 percent of people who have selected a plan on the exchanges described themselves as having previously been without insurance. That percentage is up from 11 percent a month earlier, the report said.

The Obama administration has said 4 million people have signed up for private coverage through the insurance exchanges although it is not known how many of them had been uninsured.

The administration has said 9 million people are eligible for Medicaid, a number that includes renewals. Outside experts estimate that the Medicaid eligible number may be lower, around 3.5 million.

According to McKinsey, the most common reason for not signing up for insurance cited by both previously insured and previously uninsured survey respondents was the perceived challenges in being able to afford coverage.

A second survey by researchers at the Urban Institute, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, found that Americans with lower incomes and those who are uninsured are less likely to know about the ObamaCare marketplaces than others, the Post reported.

COMMENT:  I went to a seminar some years ago when PBS was trying to develop a TV show encouraging minorities to seek medical care.  Someone from the Public Health Service told me how difficult it was to get some groups into the medical system.  Those who didn't get care, he said, were usually those who didn't want it.  They were what we would call today, politely, low-information citizens.  It's a very awkward subject to discuss, but it's the reality.  There are people offered free medical checks who turn it down, and they're not about to register for health insurance.

March 7, 2014       Permalink

UKRAINE – PUTIN REBUFFS OBAMA – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  There haven't been any new explosions overnight, but the Ukrainian crisis remains severe.  From Reuters: 

(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin rebuffed a warning from U.S. President Barack Obama over Moscow's military intervention in Crimea, saying on Friday that Russia could not ignore calls for help from Russian speakers in Ukraine.

After an hour-long telephone call, Putin said in a statement that Moscow and Washington were still far apart on the situation in the former Soviet republic, where he said the new authorities had taken "absolutely illegitimate decisions on the eastern, southeastern and Crimea regions.

"Russia cannot ignore calls for help and it acts accordingly, in full compliance with international law," Putin said.

Ukraine's border guards said Moscow had poured troops into the southern peninsula where Russian forces have seized control.

Serhiy Astakhov, an aide to the border guards' commander, said there were now 30,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea, compared to 11,000 permanently based with the Russian Black Sea fleet in the port of Sevastopol before the crisis.

COMMENT:  Hillary Clinton was criticized for comparing Russia's actions to those of Nazi Germany before World War II, but she was essentially correct.  Berlin endlessly anguished about the needs of German-speaking people in countries that bordered Germany.  Ditto Putin.

This could drag on, with the Russians winning what they need by simply working the clock.  After a time, the West will get bored.  And the Western Europeans, led by Germany, are reluctant to upset the Russians too much, as there is a substantial economic relationship between Europe and Russia.

March 7, 2014      Permalink

ANOTHER FAMOUS VICTORY – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  Syria, which is supposed to be ridding itself of chemical weapons as part of an agreement that avoided American military intervention, is missing another deadline.  The agreement seems to be coming apart.  From Reuters:   

(Reuters) - Syria will miss a major deadline next week in the program to destroy its chemical weapons production facilities, sources at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said on Thursday.

Syria declared 12 production facilities to the OPCW and has until March 15 to destroy them under a deal agreed with the United States and Russia. Damascus has already missed several deadlines laid out in the agreement.

"That will definitely be missed," said an official involved in discussions with Syria, referring to the March 15 deadline.

The official, who asked not to be identified, said there were seven "hardened" aircraft hangars and five underground facilities. "None of them have been destroyed at the moment," the official said.

Syrian officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

Damascus agreed last year to destroy all chemical weapons facilities and surrender 1,300 metric tons of toxic agents to a joint OPCW/United Nations mission. It has until June 30 to eliminate its chemical weapons program completely.

COMMENT:   This is not working.  Our Syria policy is failing before the eyes of the world.  In the Mideast, that means Iran is watching. 

We were too late in Syria.  We had the chance to arm a moderate opposition force, but Obama refused, despite the advice of, yes, Hillary Clinton.  Syria today is a horror story, with no good actors.  And we are cutting our defense budget and losing influence in the Mideast.  Welcome to hope and change.

March 7, 2014       Permalink

SPINNING THE JOBS NUMBERS – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  The new monthly jobs report is out.  From The New York Times: 

The American economy added 175,000 jobs last month, a pace that was better than economists had expected and well above the anemic job gains recorded in December and January.

Still, the latest figures for hiring were down from last year’s average of roughly 190,000 and fell a bit short of what policy makers had been hoping to see at this stage of the recovery. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 6.7 percent.

The February report by the Labor Department had been eagerly awaited and was viewed as a wild card, with economists struggling to estimate the impact of wintry weather in many parts of the country as well as seasonal adjustments by government statisticians.

Before Friday’s report, the consensus among economists on Wall Street called for employers to have added 149,000 positions in February, with the jobless rate remaining flat at 6.6 percent.

COMMENT:  We start with a baseline of 150,000 jobs, which is what is needed each month just to keep up with population growth.  So we actually added an anemic 25,000 jobs last month on top of the baseline. 

This is still a jobless "recovery," if it's a recovery at all.  And many of the jobs created turn out to be part-time or low-paying jobs.  Nothing to brag about.

March 7,  2014     Permalink